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Spillovers of community-based health interventions on consumption smoothing

keynes collegeA new discussion paper by Emla Fitzsimons, Bansi Malde and Marcos Vera-Hernández, KDPE 1611, October 2016

Non-technical summary

Interventions seeking to involve communities, particularly through community groups, are very widespread in developing countries. They are thought to be a cost-effective way of delivering services to under-served populations, triggering and sustaining behaviour change, as well as shifting social norms. Governments and NGOs use group-based interventions to provide financial services (e.g. microfinance); promote cooperation and collective action (e.g. participatory women’s groups); deliver parenting interventions; deliver aid and infrastructure in post-conflict as well
as non-conflict settings among others.

National security consequences of Brexit: the case of arms exports

bulletsby Maria D. C. Garcia Alonso (University of Kent), Quentin Michel (Université de Liège) and Ron Smith (Birkbeck College).

Introduction

The decision by the UK to leave the EU will have implications in a very large number of areas, given the extent of European coordination. An important area is the control of arms exports. Exports of weapons and dual-use equipment, which can have both military and civilian applications, raise major security concerns: you do not want to arm your enemies and you do not want your allies to arm your enemies either. Most states have arms export control regulations and supplies are also restricted, to some extent, by international regimes like the Wassenaar Arrangement on export controls for conventional arms, by UN embargoes, and by the Arms Trade Treaty that entered into force in December 2014.

Production and Endogenous Bankruptcy under Collateral Constraints

miguel leon ledesmaA new discussion paper by Miguel León-Ledesma and Jaime Orrillo, KDPE 1610, October 2016

Non-technical summary

The cyclical behaviour of firm bankruptcy displays a clear counter-cyclical pattern: firms tend to go bankrupt  in  recessions.  This  leads  to  an  amplification  of  business  cycles  and  has  important consequences to understand asset prices  and the evolution of other macro variables like employment. However, macroeconomic models in which firms are allowed to go out of business are scarce. In this paper, we take a step in the direction of understanding the general equilibrium effects of default and bankruptcy.

Government spending multipliers in natural resource-rich developing countries

keynes collegeA new discussion paper by Jean-Pascal Nganou, Juste Somé and Guy Tchuente, KDPE 1609, September 2016

Non-technical summary

This paper estimates government spending multiplier for natural resource-rich lowincome countries (LICs). The government spending multiplier is the ratio of a change in national income to any autonomous change in government spending.

Regularization based Anderson Rubin tests

keynes collegeA new discussion paper by Marine Carrasco and Guy Tchuente, KDPE 1608, September 2016

Non-technical summary

In many empirical works in economics, the aim of the researcher is to establish a causal or a noncausal relationship between two variables. Because unobserved variables affect most economics variables, identification and estimation of parameters of interest suffer from the endogeneity problem. In presence of endogeneity, identification of the causal parameter of interest is achieved using instrumental variables. The instrumental variables are assumed to be highly correlated with the right-hand side endogenous variables (strong) and uncorrelated with the structural error (valid or respecting the exclusion restriction).

Estimation of social interaction models

guy tchuente 120x120A new discussion paper by Guy Tchuente, KDPE 1607, July 2016

Non-technical summary

This paper considers the estimation of social interaction models with network structures and the presence of endogenous, contextual, correlated and group fixed effects. In network models, an agent's behavior may be influenced by peers' choices (the endogenous effect), by peers' exogenous characteristics (the contextual effect), and/or by the common environment of the network (the correlated effect) (see Manski (1993) for a description of these models).

The post-crisis slump in Europe: A business cycle accounting analysis

keynes collegeA new discussion paper by Florian Gerth and Keisuke Otsu, KDPE 1606, September 2016

Non-technical summary

Nearly a decade has passed since the onset of the Great Recession. However, European countries have shown very little recovery. Economists collectively agree that the financial market turmoil initiated by the subprime loan crisis in the US is the source of the Great Recession. However, there is little consensus about the propagation mechanism through which the initial shock led to a steep and persistent drop in key economic variables...

The revenue implication of trade liberalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some new evidence

lanre kassimA new discussion paper by Lanre Kassim, KDPE 1605, June 2016

Non-technical summary

Trade taxes are a major source of government revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa as these taxes are easier to administer compared to domestic taxes (See African Trade Policy, 2004). The advent of trade liberalisation, however, leads to a gradual decline in the revenue from trade taxes. If this drop in trade tax revenues is not offset by an increase in domestic tax revenues, then there is an inevitable decline in total tax revenues...

School's Professor Chadha appointed next Director of NIESR

Professor Jagjit ChadhaThe School would like to congratulate Jagjit Chadha on his appointment as the Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), with effect from May this year.

Jagjit Chadha is currently a Professor in the School of Economics and Mercers' School Memorial Professor of Commerce at Gresham College. He has held previous academic posts at the Universities of Cambridge, Southampton and St Andrews and has also worked as an economist at the Bank of England and BNP Paribas.  Throughout his career he has been a commentator and researcher on a wide range of macro-economic policy issues.

What is driving the increase in child marriage in Bangladesh?

zaki wahhaj 120x120Child marriage is a global problem affecting 15 million girls every year. The practice severely limits their life choices, and there is a growing consensus within the international community that it has far-reaching consequences for the girls, their families and their communities.  In 2014 the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution asking all member states to pass and enforce laws banning child marriages.  Some members have responded promptly to the call by adopting new laws to bring an end to child marriage.